The US government furlough that began on October 1st has had notable effects on markets and asset prices. Beyond that, it has delayed the release of key macroeconomic data, complicating research and analysis during an already uncertain period.

The US government furlough that began on October 1st has had notable effects on markets and asset prices. Beyond that, it has delayed the release of key macroeconomic data, complicating research and analysis during an already uncertain period. 

At Macrobond, our goal is to make navigating this uncertain environment easier helping analysts, economists and decision-makers stay on top of trends and make faster, smarter decisions.  

Macrobond keeps our users informed with flexible alternatives and powerful tools. Our platform lets users nowcast missing values, build advanced models, or simply enter their own forecasts – putting you in full control of the data workflow. With more than 400,000 U.S. labor market time series at your fingertips, Macrobond delivers unmatched depth and flexibility. 

Macrobond is staying aware of the situation and will take all steps to update our time series with accurate information as soon as data is made available. However we take the trust our customers place in our product seriously and will not be updating with unverified data.  

We are aware there are sometimes alternative sources for our series and will leverage these where possible, especially for state level numbers. This will always be noted in Meta Data of affected series and revisions will be applied when the original source release numbers. 

If you know of data sets not yet available through our products you feel would be helpful in this situation, don’t hesitate to get in touch with us through support and we will investigate possibilities to acquire such data. 

In this update, we focus on: 

  1. Key US Releases Since the furlough  (Oct 1–24)
  2. Alternative Macrobond data series that can be leveraged 
  3. Leveraging Macrobond analyses to estimate key releases 
  4. Advanced econometric forecasting with Indicio 

This page will be updated on an ongoing basis as we become aware of releases being affected or postponed. 

1. Key US Releases affected (Oct 1–24): 

Release Planned time of update Source
! CPI Rescheduled to 10/24/2025 08:30 EST U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
! Unemployment Claims 10/23/2025 08:30 EST U.S. Department of Labor
! Unemployment Claims by State 10/23/2025 08:30 EST U.S. Department of Labor
Harmonized CPI (HICP) Rescheduled to 10/20/2025 11:00 EST U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
! Unemployment Claims 10/16/2025 08:30 EST U.S. Department of Labor
! Unemployment Claims by State 10/16/2025 08:30 EST U.S. Department of Labor
Average Real Earnings 10/15/2025  8:30 EST U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
CES National (Add-On) 10/15/2025  8:30 EST U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
Freight Railroad Services 10/15/2025  9:00 EST U.S. Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT)
Transportation Services Index 10/15/2025  9:00 EST U.S. Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT)
! Unemployment Claims 10/9/2025 08:30 EST U.S. Department of Labor
! Unemployment Claims by State 10/9/2025 08:30 EST U.S. Department of Labor
Wholesale Trade 10/9/2025 10:00 EST U.S. Census Bureau
Agricultural Trade Data 10/9/2025 14:00 EST U.S. Department of Agriculture
California Shell Eggs Prices 10/9/2025 15:00 EST U.S. Department of Agriculture
Business Applications (Weekly) 10/8/2025 10:00 EST U.S. Census Bureau
Business Formation Statistics 10/8/2025 10:00 EST U.S. Census Bureau
BEA Foreign Trade, Goods & Services Totals 10/7/2025 08:30 EST U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
Trade in Goods 10/7/2025 08:30 EST U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
Advanced Technology Products - Imports & Exports 10/7/2025 08:30 EST U.S. Census Bureau
Calculated Duties & Dutiable Values 10/7/2025 08:30 EST U.S. Census Bureau
Imports of Steel Products 10/7/2025 08:30 EST U.S. Census Bureau
International Trade (HS & NAICS by Country) 10/7/2025 08:30 EST U.S. Census Bureau
International Trade in Goods & Services 10/7/2025 08:30 EST U.S. Census Bureau
Trade in Goods & Services - BOP Basis 10/7/2025 08:30 EST U.S. Census Bureau
U.S. Treasury Coupons & Bills Auctions 10/7/2025 15:00 EST U.S. Department of Treasury
Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) 10/6/2025 10:00 EST Conference Board
Grains Inspected for Export 10/6/2025 11:00 EST U.S. Department of Agriculture
ADS Business Conditions Index 10/6/2025 11:05 EST Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Conference Board Business Cycle Indicators 10/6/2025 11:45 EST Conference Board
Average Interest Rates 10/6/2025 15:00 EST U.S. Department of Treasury
Interest Expense on the Debt Outstanding (Fiscal Year) 10/6/2025 15:00 EST U.S. Department of Treasury
Public Debt 10/6/2025 15:00 EST U.S. Department of Treasury
Absences from Work 10/3/2025 8:30 EST U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
! Average Earnings 10/3/2025 8:30 EST U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
CES National (Add-On) 10/3/2025 8:30 EST U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
CES Net Business Birth/Death Adjustment 10/3/2025 8:30 EST U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
CES Registry Receipts by Release 10/3/2025 8:30 EST U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
CPS Labor Force Statistics (Add-On) 10/3/2025 8:30 EST U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
! Employment Situation 10/3/2025 8:30 EST U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
Labor Force Status Flows by Duration of Unemployment 10/3/2025 8:30 EST U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
CFTC COT Report 10/3/2025 15:30 EST CFTC
! Unemployment Claims 10/2/2025 8:30 EST U.S. Department of Labor
! Unemployment Claims by State 10/2/2025 8:30 EST U.S. Department of Labor
Motor Vehicle Sales (Auto & Truck Seasonal Adjustment) 10/2/2025 10:00 EST U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories & Orders 10/2/2025 10:00 EST U.S. Census Bureau
Harmonized CPI (HICP) 10/2/2025 11:00 EST U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
Daily Treasury Bill Rates Data 10/2/2025 16:00 EST U.S. Department of Treasury
Public Debt (Annual) 10/2/2025 16:15 EST U.S. Department of Treasury
Construction Spending, Value Put in Place 10/2/2025 17:30 EST U.S. Census Bureau

2. Alternative data to support key Release trends 

Markets are closely watching two major indicators: 

i. Initial jobless claims - Thursday 08:30 EST 

ii. Non-farm Payrolls - Friday 08:30 EST 

While there is no perfect substitute for official data, Macrobond provides alternative series to help track US employment trends. For example: 

  Example in Macrobond   
Nonfarm Payrolls by Revelio Labs Macrobond chart library : 1. Regions & Themes/Regions/1. United States/Labor Market/US Nonfarm … Source & Release > United States [us, Region] > Revelio Labs
ADP Employment Report  Macrobond chart library : 1. Regions & Themes/Regions/1. United States/Labor Market/US ADP Employment Report  Country & Region > United States [us, Region] > Labor Market [lama, Category] > Employment > ADP National Employment Report 
Indeed Job Postings by Category  Macrobond chart library : 1. Regions & Themes/Regions/1. United States/Labor Market/US Job Postings (Indeed)  Country & Region > United States [us, Region] > Labor Market [lama, Category] > Labor Flow Statistics > Job Vacancies > Indeed Job Postings Indicator 
Sectoral Shifts in Labor Turnover by Challenger, Gray & Christmas  Macrobond chart library : 1. Regions & Themes/Regions/1. United States/Labor Market/US Sectoral Shifts  Country & Region > United States [us, Region] > Labor Market [lama, Category] > Labor Flow Statistics > Labor Turnover > Challenger Job Layoffs 
Job Layoffs and Hires by Challenger, Gray & Christmas  Macrobond chart library : 1. Regions & Themes/Regions/1. United States/Labor Market/US Challenger Job Layoffs & Hires  Country & Region > United States [us, Region] > Labor Market [lama, Category] > Labor Flow Statistics > Labor Turnover > Challenger Job Layoffs 

3. Leveraging Macrobond Analyses 

Macrobond users can apply a range of statistical methods to estimate key releases, including: 

  How to create  Example in Macrobond 
Forecast  https://help.macrobond.com/tutorials-training/3-analyzing-data/analyses/operations/forecast/  Macrobond chart library : 3. Feature Examples/Analyses/Forecast/CPI evolution MoM 
Regression Analysis  https://help.macrobond.com/tutorials-training/3-analyzing-data/analyses/statistical/regression/  Macrobond chart library : 3. Feature Examples/Analyses/Regression/Regression model - multiple series 
Vector Autoregression  https://help.macrobond.com/tutorials-training/3-analyzing-data/analyses/statistical/vector-autoregression/  Macrobond chart library : 3. Feature Examples/Analyses/VAR/Vector autoregression with five variables 
Principal Component Analysis  https://help.macrobond.com/tutorials-training/3-analyzing-data/analyses/statistical/principal-components/  Macrobond chart library : 3. Feature Examples/Analyses/PCA/PCA UK Swap rates 

4. Advanced Forecasting with Indicio 

Our partnership with Indicio allows users to apply 40+ advanced econometric models to forecast macro and market variables. 

  Indicio product tour  Past example for NFPR 
Indicio forecasting  https://www.indicio.com/product-tour  https://www.macrobond.com/resources/blogs/non-farm-payrolls-may-show-only-modest-softening-in-the-us-job-market 

Should you have any questions relating to the situation we are here to help and happy to hear from you.