First the x-axis:
- If the highest correlation is in the negative side, it should be Lead.
- If on the positive side, it should be Lag.
Then, which series to apply it to?
- From the chart: the result should be applied to the series not described in brackets, here the ISM PMI.
- From the analysis: the output is for the series on the left side (not the “correlate to…” series)